Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2015, Vol. 13

This paper evaluates the heterogeneous impact of hydro-meteorological disasters on populations along the dimensions of age, sex, and human development. The analysis is based on previously untapped cause-of-death data over the period 1995– 2011 that were obtained from the WHO mortality database, and were based on the civil registration records of 63 countries/territories. Using these data, we evaluate patterns of mortality related to meteorological disasters in the spirit of model life tables.We observe that mortality rates from hydro-meteorological disasters for men are consistently higher than for women across all age groups, and that the differential by sex is larger for adults than for young children or the elderly. Furthermore, the sex differential in mortality becomes smaller with improvements in human development. Comparing our disaster fatalities with those recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), we find that the number of deaths from hydro-meteorological disasters was underestimated in the WHO database, especially in the case of highimpact events. In the paper we discuss issues of data quality and data harmonisation for the study of the differential demographic impact of natural disasters. One of our main goals is to stimulate an interdisciplinary debate in this area.

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Growing evidence indicates that world temperatures have increased in recent history, and that this trend is likely to continue in the future. The rise in global temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in extreme weather events, which often have devastating environmental, economic, demographic, and social effects. As concern about the impact of climate change has grown in recent years, there has been a considerable increase in the number of studies published on the effects of extreme temperatures. However, detailed, systematic, and historical investigations into the relationship between temperature and mortality relationship are still difficult to find. This study fills some of these gaps. By examining the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in Taiwan in the 1970s, our aim is to answer the following questions: (1) Is a lower or a higher temperature recorded in winter or summer related to higher daily mortality? (2) Is mortality higher in particular years with extreme temperatures than it is in the corresponding periods of other years with normal temperatures? (3) Finally, if more extreme temperatures are indeed associated with higher mortality, what kinds of people tend to face higher mortality risks? This study shows that variations in daily mortality were related to changes in temperature in Taiwan over the study period. Cold temperatures in the winter, hot temperatures in the summer, and unusually cold or hot temperatures were all associated with higher mortality. In comparison with other times of the year, the proportions of people who died at old or very young ages were relatively high during cold periods. The proportions of deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases were also relatively high, and these deaths contributed to the high mortality levels in winter time. Meanwhile, during the hot periods relatively high proportions of children and young people died of injuries or poisoning, and relatively high proportions of people died of respiratory diseases; both of these causes of death were closely related to mortality increases in the summer. In comparison with recent decades, however, these patterns were more observable in the 1970s, when the public health and the socioeconomic development levels in Taiwan were not as advanced as they are today.

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As global warming and climate change predictions become increasingly certain, there is mounting pressure to gain a better understanding of disaster risk. Climate change is seen as a major contributing factor in the recent increases in the losses and damages attributed to hazard extremes. Vulnerability is one of the key components of risk. Yet identifying who the vulnerable segments of the population are, and to which specific hazards different groups are vulnerable, remains a challenge. Measuring social vulnerability has become an active area of research, with scholars attempting to capture the differential vulnerabilities of the population exposed to certain hazards. To address these research challenges, we developed in this study social vulnerability indices at the most basic level of governance in the Philippines using raw, individual-level census data for the entire country. Our goal in conducting this research is to establish relationships between the derived vulnerability measurements and flood exposure and the impacts of coastal flash floods triggered by Tropical Storm Washi in the southern Philippines in December 2011. We find that exposure rather than vulnerability appears to play a greater role in the magnitude of the losses and damages resulting from this particular type of hazard at the localized scale.

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In this paper we assess differential exposure to flooding in two coastal megacities, New York and Mumbai, both of which suffered major flood-related disasters in the past decade. Specifically, we examine whether the most exposed populations are also the most socially vulnerable. First, we developed Social Vulnerability Indices (SoVIs) for each city with census data. We then overlaid the SoVI scores onto flood extent maps for Hurricane Sandy (New York, October 2012) and the Mumbai flash floods (July 2005), as well as for the evacuation zones for New York, to examine patterns of differential exposure. Our results suggest a degree of differential exposure in New York, especially in the highest flood risk areas, and provide fairly clear evidence for differential exposure in Mumbai. However, differences in the input resolution and confidence in the datasets for Mumbai make the results more uncertain. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and the data needs for urban spatial vulnerability assessments.

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Rural households that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods are expected to face increased vulnerability due to climate variability. A number of empirical papers have assessed the impact of environmental shocks on these households, including demographic research that has investigated the impact of shocks on migration. To date, few studies have explicitly modeled how individual and household characteristics influence a household respondent’s subjective perceptions of environmental or other shocks. My paper uses a unique panel dataset from rural Thailand to predict a respondent’s probability of attributing a reduction in income to an environmental shock based on household composition and income, as well as on community-level effects. Preliminary results suggest that household composition influences respondents’ perceptions of environmental risk, and that policies aimed at vulnerable communities should consider the life courses of the households within a given community.

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Using data from Opinions about the Environment and Global Warming 2010, a nationally representative survey of 3900 adults, this study investigates demographic differentials in levels of concern about climate change and climate-relevant behaviours. The factor analysis of 11 environmentally friendly and carbon emissions reduction behaviours identifies two main factors that underlie climate-relevant behaviours: (1) efforts to save electricity and water, and (2) technical and behavioural changes. The multivariate analyses show that women and individuals with higher education are more likely than others to worry a great deal about global warming, and to make technical and behavioural changes. It may be the case that education is positively correlated with making technical and behavioural changes, but not with making efforts to save electricity or water, because the former set of actions require more effort and knowledge to pursue, while the latter set of actions are commonly undertaken for economic reasons. Having concerns about global warming and having experienced environmental problems are also associated with an increased adoption of climate-relevant behaviours.

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The present paper looks at the implications of anticipated changes in population size and composition for the projected number of deaths from natural disasters Building on empirical evidence from cross-country time series of factors associated with natural disaster fatalities since 1970 in 174 countries, the paper first highlights the major role of education in enabling people to cope with weather extremes in the past. Using the five demographic scenarios implied by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which include trajectories for the future of educational expansion, this evidence is translated in the second part of the paper into projections of the number of deaths from climate-related extreme natural events for six major world regions. Assuming constant hazard, we demonstrate the importance of including in assessments of future vulnerability not only the projected population size but the full population heterogeneity by age, sex and level of education.

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We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of the Human Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree of vulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recent developments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, and educational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different components of the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. We develop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluation of the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change in general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.

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In this paper we describe an innovative aspect of the population module in the context of an ongoing comprehensive modelling effort to assess future populationenvironment interactions through specific case studies. A particular focus of our study is the vulnerability of coastal populations to environmental factors and their future adaptive capacity. Based on the four-dimensional cross-classification of populations by age, sex, level of education, and labour force participation, our approach builds on a recent body of research that has critically assessed the role of demographic differentials as determinants of differential vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We use Phang Nga, a province in the south of Thailand that was severely affected by the tsunami in 2004, to describe current levels of educational attainment and investigate past trends, which in turn serve as input for detailed education projections. These education projections, in combination with projections of economic activity and household survey results about disaster preparedness, feed into further analysis of future adaptive capacity. Given our specifications and assumptions, we find that the educational composition of the province’s labour force will shift towards higher levels, and that the population of Phang Nga will be better prepared for future disasters.

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